Expect an Active Hurricane Season Next Year
The holiday season is
upon us. In fact, in two weeks the only things
left will be taking down the decorations and, for many shoppers,
piles of unpaid bills.
It
will take until April just to take down all the lights from my
neighbor's wonderful 22,000-light display. Florida Power & Light
should send him a thank-you note. There will be joy of course, about
the gifts and presents that outlast their batteries. and the
wonderful memories of families reunited for the holidays. Flying
will be cheaper, albeit more time consuming than last year, and
driving will cost
considerably less than our last Christmas visit to Atlanta to spend
the holidays with our daughter and her husband.
The
snowbirds are already showing
up, most of them are unaffected by the airfares as the majority of
them drive. I will be able to attest to the snowbird phenomenon
shorty as I annually share the road with the southbound convoys of
campers and trailers on Interstate 75 during the week between
Christmas and New Year's.
It is
one reason I like to travel at night during this time of year.
Snowbirds are not by nature nocturnal creatures. Another reason for
the annual winter resident migration is the end of the hurricane
season on Nov. 30. We have been given a rhetorical "all clear"
to coincide with our wonderful winter weather. Incidentally, we also
have our first reality check. Just one week after the close of the
2001 season we already have the forecast for the 2002
hurricane season.
The
annual tropical storm forecast
has been released by Dr. William Gray and his staff at Colorado State
University
(http://typhoon.atrnos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/).
The 2002 season is predicted to be busier than the previous six
years, with the Southeast, including the Florida peninsula, rated at
a 58% chance of being struck by a Category 3,4, or 5 storm. The
average for the last century is 31 percent.
The forecast for 2002
includes 13 named storms, eight of which will be hurricanes. Four of
those storms are predicted to be intense. Thomas Milligan and
Jennifer Dimas, Colorado State University media representatives,
(970) 491-6432, are available to answer various questions about the
forecast.
I only report the
numbers, I don't create them.
A recent forum on on
disaster preparedness held in Port Charlotte failed to attract more
than a few attendees. Of course, listening to officials preach doom
and gloom immediately before a season of cheer and goodwill was not
an example of astute marketing, especially when charging a $2
donation
for the New York relief
fund when everyone has read about the new York Red Cross Relief fund
no longer accepting donations.
It probably didn't help
by holding the forum three days after the close of the hurricane
season, either. The perpetually worried residents who believe they
are now safe for six more months would much rather go shopping.
Speaking of shopping, no
reason to rush, I still have four more days.
George Mindling ©
2001
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